Finally let’s talk about Infrastructure. The real infrastructure is going to remain hands on. So electricians, HVAC, Fiber Splicers (that is extremely delicate work splicing glass fibers) and anyone who has SKILLED hands on and is a reliable and trainable employee has a future. As for AI its chief gain is machine learning machines (additive manufacturing with AI can instantly get feedback and self correct as prototype as it “prints” for example). Rednecks are all over 3D printing (admittedly often to make Cannibis paraphernalia or guns , but The Wright Brothers were smart rednecks you know) and rednexx will learn AI as tool.
Hey, this is such a thoughtful comment. I appreciate you bringing real depth to the conversation.
You’re right: skilled hands-on work isn’t going anywhere. It's becoming more valuable. Electricians, HVAC folks, fiber splicers — these roles aren’t just surviving, they’re turning into high-tech careers in disguise.
Loved the 3D printing angle too — especially the “rednecks with printers” bit 😄. You’re spot on: tech’s not just for Silicon Valley — it's for anyone curious enough to tinker. The Wright Brothers were the original garage engineers, and you're right — the next-gen version might just be learning to prototype with AI instead of wood and wire.
Agree: infrastructure + skilled labor + AI = future-proof combo.
Thanks for sharing those links, too. I'm diving into AssemblyMag and the a16z piece now. Let’s keep this thread going—this is exactly the kind of conversation we need more of.
On all - Human beings, lawyers, HR all very stubborn and persistent, we’ll see. They are good at rigging the system.
Blue …
On oil rig worker and assembly line worker - or rather hands on for both and manufacturing in particular I am really going to need to see these plants and rigs operational now and profitable 3 years to believe. Musk looked at automation for factories and stepped back, as the Germans for example had results indicating that overall automation didn’t reduce headcount, as other hands were needed to finish or fix behind the robots.
I’m not an oil rig worker, but I again need to see these automated oil rigs that self assemble and build <
Appreciate this pushback — you're raising some sharp points.
You're right that automation doesn't always mean elimination. In a lot of cases, it just reshuffles the deck — fewer people on the line, more people maintaining the line. But here’s where I stand by the core message:
Just because automation didn’t fully replace the job in 2023… doesn’t mean it won’t in 2030.
Early stages of tech adoption are always clunky. But the direction is clear, especially in roles that are routine, repetitive, or physically risky. Oil rigs might not self-assemble yet, but fully automated rigs aren’t sci-fi — they’re just early. Same with assembly lines. It’s not about whether they’re gone today — it’s about where the momentum is heading.
As for HR, lawyers, and the “human workarounds” — totally get the point. But gaming the system is also a form of fragility. AI doesn’t need to take your whole job — it just needs to take the part that pays.
So yes — let’s be skeptical. But also, let’s not confuse “still here” with “safe.”
I don’t consider anyone safe but the dead. I just don’t believe in the Luddite / Saboteur (Sabot throwers) either. DOOM ! 😱
Nor do I believe in “early “? What does that mean? Do these early things exist or don’t they? Early?
Ok… show me…
Let’s take another problem; military. We have great success with flying drones to a point- although the giant piles of felled drones from Uko-Russian war aren’t exactly encouraging and questionable cost effectiveness.
Fragility? 10K drones expended per month? What’s robust or resilience look like? That’s not a negligible expense.
We have less drone success on the ground although they can scoot on caterpillars, we aren’t seeing them walk over rubble or up steps yet. That seems to be a problem. That’s a real show stopper on the ground. Or indoors.
Nor have the respective combatants used the best countermeasures yet - to the extent they exist. Or work. That war is in a step change is certain.
So much for war.
To return to the Scaffolding-
I notice academia has no seat in the Tumbrels, despite AI’s best human interface being Teacher? Any reason? Andreessen Horowitz certainly had some very positive takes and predictions for AI … ? Why aren’t teachers on the endangered species list? There’s no one more obsolete.
I agree that the White Collar jobs of yesterday are in danger, in fact many will become obsolete especially if they don’t learn the new tools. I just don’t think this will be the horrid end times we’ve been getting warned about for 300 years at least, what has always happened is this;
The Workers adapt and adopt the new Tools.
The Priesthood (white collar indeed) classes tend to not adapt for reasons of status at which point they are either thrown down or replaced by regressive anti-progress types. One could think the stereotype of the counter reformation church, or Islam’s rejection of science (which was then called philosophy) or one could quite look at Communism first generation BTW - where the Tsar’s clerks (aristos with makework desk jobs) were replaced by murderous academics like Lenin and Trotsky.
The real workhorse of the USSR was of course Stalin. He was of all of them the hardest worker.
Yes, I consider the Communists murderous academics and the Campus Communism. I’m American and we can see it.
So let’s not be surprised if somewhere some white collar prophet of the professional managerial class arises …. to save (their sinecures) humanity from the Evil AI.
I don’t think that has a real future in America or China, it might in Europe. The Butcher of Brussels leading a Butlerian Jihad…
It’s not as if we can ask these people to work…
So the workers - people defined by their work- vs the panicking Bourgeois Panicking Priesthood Managerial Class may indeed find themselves at odds here…
But Blue Collar hands on will be fine. Unless they follow some White Collared Priesthood…
I close in humility that I too am early in predicting a warrior prophet of the Priesthood Managerial Class … even history is often Early.
Let’s talk about the now, and the future. We have labor shortages of hands on.
Here’s a org that has been on reshoring for over a decade, and yes manufacturing.
https://reshorenow.org/
Assembly mag - see additive manufacturing aka 3d printing
https://www.assemblymag.com/
a16z.com Andreessen Horowitz especially on AI - and Defense and space.
https://a16z.com/american-dynamism-50-2025/
Finally let’s talk about Infrastructure. The real infrastructure is going to remain hands on. So electricians, HVAC, Fiber Splicers (that is extremely delicate work splicing glass fibers) and anyone who has SKILLED hands on and is a reliable and trainable employee has a future. As for AI its chief gain is machine learning machines (additive manufacturing with AI can instantly get feedback and self correct as prototype as it “prints” for example). Rednecks are all over 3D printing (admittedly often to make Cannibis paraphernalia or guns , but The Wright Brothers were smart rednecks you know) and rednexx will learn AI as tool.
Follow that assembly mag, that’s now and next…
Hey, this is such a thoughtful comment. I appreciate you bringing real depth to the conversation.
You’re right: skilled hands-on work isn’t going anywhere. It's becoming more valuable. Electricians, HVAC folks, fiber splicers — these roles aren’t just surviving, they’re turning into high-tech careers in disguise.
Loved the 3D printing angle too — especially the “rednecks with printers” bit 😄. You’re spot on: tech’s not just for Silicon Valley — it's for anyone curious enough to tinker. The Wright Brothers were the original garage engineers, and you're right — the next-gen version might just be learning to prototype with AI instead of wood and wire.
Agree: infrastructure + skilled labor + AI = future-proof combo.
Thanks for sharing those links, too. I'm diving into AssemblyMag and the a16z piece now. Let’s keep this thread going—this is exactly the kind of conversation we need more of.
a16z.com backed the right horse 😉
Profound on Routine Collar.
On all - Human beings, lawyers, HR all very stubborn and persistent, we’ll see. They are good at rigging the system.
Blue …
On oil rig worker and assembly line worker - or rather hands on for both and manufacturing in particular I am really going to need to see these plants and rigs operational now and profitable 3 years to believe. Musk looked at automation for factories and stepped back, as the Germans for example had results indicating that overall automation didn’t reduce headcount, as other hands were needed to finish or fix behind the robots.
I’m not an oil rig worker, but I again need to see these automated oil rigs that self assemble and build <
Appreciate this pushback — you're raising some sharp points.
You're right that automation doesn't always mean elimination. In a lot of cases, it just reshuffles the deck — fewer people on the line, more people maintaining the line. But here’s where I stand by the core message:
Just because automation didn’t fully replace the job in 2023… doesn’t mean it won’t in 2030.
Early stages of tech adoption are always clunky. But the direction is clear, especially in roles that are routine, repetitive, or physically risky. Oil rigs might not self-assemble yet, but fully automated rigs aren’t sci-fi — they’re just early. Same with assembly lines. It’s not about whether they’re gone today — it’s about where the momentum is heading.
As for HR, lawyers, and the “human workarounds” — totally get the point. But gaming the system is also a form of fragility. AI doesn’t need to take your whole job — it just needs to take the part that pays.
So yes — let’s be skeptical. But also, let’s not confuse “still here” with “safe.”
I don’t consider anyone safe but the dead. I just don’t believe in the Luddite / Saboteur (Sabot throwers) either. DOOM ! 😱
Nor do I believe in “early “? What does that mean? Do these early things exist or don’t they? Early?
Ok… show me…
Let’s take another problem; military. We have great success with flying drones to a point- although the giant piles of felled drones from Uko-Russian war aren’t exactly encouraging and questionable cost effectiveness.
Fragility? 10K drones expended per month? What’s robust or resilience look like? That’s not a negligible expense.
We have less drone success on the ground although they can scoot on caterpillars, we aren’t seeing them walk over rubble or up steps yet. That seems to be a problem. That’s a real show stopper on the ground. Or indoors.
Nor have the respective combatants used the best countermeasures yet - to the extent they exist. Or work. That war is in a step change is certain.
So much for war.
To return to the Scaffolding-
I notice academia has no seat in the Tumbrels, despite AI’s best human interface being Teacher? Any reason? Andreessen Horowitz certainly had some very positive takes and predictions for AI … ? Why aren’t teachers on the endangered species list? There’s no one more obsolete.
I agree that the White Collar jobs of yesterday are in danger, in fact many will become obsolete especially if they don’t learn the new tools. I just don’t think this will be the horrid end times we’ve been getting warned about for 300 years at least, what has always happened is this;
The Workers adapt and adopt the new Tools.
The Priesthood (white collar indeed) classes tend to not adapt for reasons of status at which point they are either thrown down or replaced by regressive anti-progress types. One could think the stereotype of the counter reformation church, or Islam’s rejection of science (which was then called philosophy) or one could quite look at Communism first generation BTW - where the Tsar’s clerks (aristos with makework desk jobs) were replaced by murderous academics like Lenin and Trotsky.
The real workhorse of the USSR was of course Stalin. He was of all of them the hardest worker.
Yes, I consider the Communists murderous academics and the Campus Communism. I’m American and we can see it.
So let’s not be surprised if somewhere some white collar prophet of the professional managerial class arises …. to save (their sinecures) humanity from the Evil AI.
I don’t think that has a real future in America or China, it might in Europe. The Butcher of Brussels leading a Butlerian Jihad…
It’s not as if we can ask these people to work…
So the workers - people defined by their work- vs the panicking Bourgeois Panicking Priesthood Managerial Class may indeed find themselves at odds here…
But Blue Collar hands on will be fine. Unless they follow some White Collared Priesthood…
I close in humility that I too am early in predicting a warrior prophet of the Priesthood Managerial Class … even history is often Early.
Cheers
Apparently there’s some movement on automated construction.
https://neuroject.com/construction-robots/
And drilling (look HALLIBURTON)
https://www.halliburton.com/en/about-us/press-release/halliburton-and-nabors-set-industry-benchmarks-drilling-automation
Still not seeing the rigs or building going up -